We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise.
In science, progress is possible. In fact, if one believes in Bayes' theorem, scientific progress is inevitable as predictions are made and as beliefs are tested and refined.
...the ratings agencies' problem was in being unable or uninterested in appreciating the distinction between risk and uncertainty.
Under Bayes' theorem, no theory is perfect. Rather, it is a work in progress, always subject to further refinement and testing.
By playing games you can artificially speed up your learning curve to develop the right kind of thought processes.
I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.
When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen.
I love South American food, and I haven't really been down there. I really need a vacation.
First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake.
Success makes you less intimidated by things.
I've become invested with this symbolic power. It really does transcend what I'm actually doing and what I actually deserve.
I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt.
In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right.
A lot of journalism wants to have what they call objectivity without them having a commitment to pursuing the truth, but that doesn't work. Objectivity requires belief in and a commitment toward pursu...
People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.