If we incorrectly think that measurement means meeting some nearly unachievable standard of certainty, then few things will be measurable even in the physical sciences.
Modeling the world mathematically is as uniquely a human trait as language or art, but you would rarely find anyone complaining of being reduced to a poem or reduced to a painting.
Knowing something about the monetary value and cost of the information in a measurement puts a new light on what is measurable. If someone says a measurement would be too expensive, we have to ask, Co...
The fact is that the preference for ignorance over even marginal reductions in ignorance is never the moral high ground. If decisions are made under a self-imposed state of higher uncertainty, policy...
Very few experts actually measure their performance over time, and they tend to summarize their memories with anecdotes. They are right sometimes and wrong sometimes, but the anecdotes they remember t...
Instead of being overwhelmed by the apparent uncertainty in such a problem, start to ask what things about it you do know.
Given a particular observation, it may seem more obvious to frame a measurement by asking the question, What can I conclude from this observation? or, in probabilistic terms, What is the probability X...
Why do we care about measurements at all? There are just three reasons. The first reason—and the focus of this book—is that we should care about a measurement because it informs key decisions. Second,...
When presented new information, we have no other option than to relate it to what we already know—there is no blank space in our minds within which new information can be stored so as not to contamina...
Understanding how to measure uncertainty is key to measuring risk. Understanding risk in a quantitative sense is key to understanding how to compute the value of information. Understanding the value o...
Researchers have run experiments25 showing that experts can be trained to be better at estimating probabilities by applying a battery of estimation tests, giving the experts a lot of quick, repetitive...
A cybersecurity expert can become well versed in technical details such as conducting penetration tests, using encryption tools, setting up firewalls, and much more—and still be unable to realisticall...
The objection to using stats boils down to nothing more than an irrational fear of numbers causing some to believe math somehow detracts from understanding or appreciation
A problem well stated is a problem half solved. —Charles Kettering (1876–1958), American inventor, holder of 300 patents, including electrical ignition for automobiles There is no greater impediment t...
Performance measure. Throughout this book, the term performance measure refers to an indicator used by management to measure, report, and improve performance. Performance measures are classed as key r...
Consider these statistics. It used to cost Farm Journal, a client of Key Survey, an average of $4 to $5 per respondent for a 40- to 50-question survey of farmers. Now, using Key Survey, it costs Farm...
It seems that to have a truly profound revelation, you almost always have to look at something other than what you have been looking at in the past. Being able to compute the value of information has...
It is the mark of an educated mind to rest satisfied with the degree of precision which the nature of the subject admits and not to seek exactness where only an approximation is possible. —Aristotle (...
For all practical decision-making purposes, we need to treat measurement as observations that quantitatively reduce uncertainty. A mere reduction, not necessarily elimination, of uncertainty will suff...
We know that decision makers will experience an increase in confidence in their decisions even when the analysis or information-gathering methods are found to be ineffectual. This is part of what Dawe...
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