“ That there is no evidence of the possibility of large events, i.e., Black Swans. You are likely to confuse that statement, however, particularly if you do not pay close attention, with the statement t… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ That if you need something urgently done, give the task to the busiest (or second busiest) person in the office. Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ Second fallacy lies in failing to take into account forecast degradation as the projected period lengthens. We Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ Our world is dominated by the extreme, the unknown, and the very improbable (improbable according our current knowledge)—and all the while we spend our time engaged in small talk, focusing on the know… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ Naïve empiricism—successions of anecdotes selected to fit a story do not constitute evidence. Anyone Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ Mi heurística me sugiere que cuanto más pagano sea alguien, más brillante es su mente, y mayor capacidad tiene para gestionar matices y ambigüedades. Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ La acción del Cisne Negro se sitúa en Extremistán, no es más que una mera aproximación; les ruego que no la platonifiquen, no la simplifiquemos más de lo que sea necesario. Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ It is only when you don’t care about your reputation that you tend to have a good one. Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ Is much easier to understand if something is harmed by volatility—hence fragile—than try to forecast harmful events, such as these oversized Black Swans. But only practitioners (or people who do thing… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ Good news is good news first; how good matters rather little. So to have a pleasant life you should spread these small affects across time as evenly as possible. Plenty of mildly good news is preferab… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ From the reference point of the winner (and, who does not, and this is key, take the losers into account), a long string of wins will appear to be too extraordinary an occurrence to be explained by lu… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ Formation of moral values in society doesn’t come from the evolution of the consensus. No, it is the most intolerant person who imposes virtue on others precisely because of that intolerance. Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ For decades doctors never suspected that this useless tissue might actually have a use that escaped their detection. The Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ Examined the cures from cancer that resulted from a visit to Lourdes in France, where people were healed by simple contact with the holy waters, and found out the interesting fact that, of the total c… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ Don’t understand? is, simply, work on the undesirable states of f(x). It is often easier to modify f(x) than to get better knowledge of x. (In other words, robustification rather than forecasting Blac… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ Detest the ruthlessness of selection, the inexorable disloyalty of Mother Nature. I detest the notion of improvement thanks to harm to others. As a humanist, I stand against the antifragility of syste… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ Complex systems do not have obvious one-dimensional cause-and-effect mechanisms, and that under opacity, you do not mess with such a system. Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ Common sense is nothing but a collection of misconceptions acquired by age eighteen. Furthermore, What sounds intelligent in a conversation or a meeting, or, particularly, in the media, is suspicious. Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ Called the lending rate, the interest rate in the economy (and has proved to be good at it). The libertarian presidential candidate Ron Paul was called a crank for suggesting the abolition of the Fede… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
