Greenspan’s actions were harmful, but even if he knew that, it would have taken a bit of heroic courage to justify inaction in a democracy where the incentive is to always promise a better outcome tha...
Further, skin in the game creates diversity, not monoculture. Economic insecurity worsens the condition. Journalists are currently in the most insecure profession you can find: the majority live hand...
Finally, when young people who want to help mankind come to me asking, What should I do? I want to reduce poverty, save the world, and similar noble aspirations at the macro-level, my suggestion is: 1...
Finally, this explains why people who look too closely at randomness burn out, their emotions drained by the series of pangs they experience. Regardless of what people claim, a negative pang is not of...
Finally, I reckon that I am not immune to such an emotional defect. But I deal with it by having no access to information, except in rare circumstances. Again, I prefer to read poetry. If an event is...
Evidence shows that we do much less thinking than we believe we do-except, of course, when we think about it.
Events that are nonrepeatable are ignored before their occurrence, and overestimated after (for a while). After
Difficulty is what wakes up the genius
Cherry-picking has optionality: the one telling the story (and publishing it) has the advantage of being able to show the confirmatory examples and completely ignore the rest—and the more volatility a...
Categorizing is necessary for humans, but it becomes pathological when the category is seen as definitive, preventing people from considering the fuzziness of boundaries,
But things are even worse: in real life, every single bit of risk you take adds up to reduce your life expectancy. If you climb mountains and ride a motorcycle and hang around the mob and fly your own...
But they never notice the following inconsistency: this so-called worst-case event, when it happened, exceeded the worst case at the time.
But one needs to be careful not to overgeneralize the Drachten effect, as it does not imply the effectiveness of removing all rules from society. As I said earlier, speed on the highway responds to a...
Bureaucracy is a construction by which a person is conveniently separated from the consequences of his or her actions.
Beyond our perceptional distortions, there is a problem with logic itself. How can someone have no clue yet be able to hold a set of perfectly sound and coherent viewpoints that match the observations...
Because what matters in life isn’t how frequently one is right about outcomes, but how much one makes when one is right. Being wrong, when it is not costly, doesn’t count—in a way that’s similar to tr...
As to liquid, my rule is drink no liquid that is not at least a thousand years old—so its fitness has been tested. I drink just wine, water, and coffee. No soft drinks. Perhaps the most possibly decei...
An idea stats to be interesting when you get scared of taking it to its logical conclusion.
An idea does not survive because it is better than the competition, but rather because the person who holds it has survived! Accordingly,
Also consider that lobbyists—this annoying race of lobbyists—cannot exist in a municipality or small region.