“ We can get closer to the truth by negative instances, not by verification! It Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ We can also see from the turkey story the mother of all harmful mistakes: mistaking absence of evidence (of harm) for evidence of absence, Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ We are fragilizing social and economic systems by denying them stressors and randomness, putting them in the Procrustean bed of cushy and comfortable—but ultimately harmful—modernity. Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ We are built to be dupes for theories. But theories come and go; experience stays. Explanations Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ Unless you are perfectly narcissistic and psychopathic—even then—your worst-case scenario is never limited to the loss of only your life. Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ Tu esisti pienamente se e solo se la tua conversazione (o i tuoi scritti) non possono essere facilmente ricostruiti con ritagli da altre conversazioni Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ Try the following experiment. Go to the airport and ask travelers en route to some remote destination how much they would pay for an insurance policy paying, say, a million tugrits (the currency of Mo… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ True, the Web produces acute concentration. A large number of users visit just a few sites, such as Google, which, at the time of this writing, has total market dominance. At no time in history has a… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ To view it in another way, consider the difference between judging on process and judging on results. Lower-ranking persons in the enterprise are judged on both process and results—in fact, owing to t… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ To understand the future, you do not need technoautistic jargon, obsession with killer apps, these sort of things. You just need the following: some respect for the past, some curiosity about the hist… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ To Fail Seven Times, Plus or Minus Two Let me stop to issue rules based on the chapter so far. (i) Look for optionality; in fact, rank things according to optionality, (ii) preferably with open-ended,… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ Those who believe in the unconditional benefits of past experience should consider this pearl of wisdom allegedly voiced by a famous ship’s captain: But in all my experience, I have never been in any… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ This does not mean we cannot talk about causes; there are ways to escape the narrative fallacy. How? By making conjectures and running experiments, or as we shall see in Part Two (alas) by making test… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ This confirmation problem pervades our modern life, since most conflicts have at their root the following mental bias: when Arabs and Israelis watch news reports they see different stories in the same… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ This absence of literary culture is actually a marker of future blindness because it is usually accompanied by a denigration of history, a byproduct of unconditional neomania. Outside of the niche and… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ Think of the difficulty in forecasting in terms of branches growing out of a tree; at every fork we have a multiplication of new branches. To see how our intuitions about these nonlinear multiplicativ… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ There is more money in designing a shoe than in actually making it: Nike, Dell, and Boeing can get paid for just thinking, organizing, and leveraging their know-how and ideas while subcontracted facto… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ There is a simple test to define path dependence of beliefs (economists have a manifestation of it called the endowment effect). Say you own a painting you bought for $20,000, and owing to rosy condit… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“ The very same desire for order, interestingly, applies to scientific pursuits-it is just that, unlike art, the (stated) purpose of science is to get to the truth, not to give you a feeling of organiza… Nassim Nicholas Taleb
