Pero hay otros problemas que surgen de nuestra ceguera ante el Cisne Negro: a) Nos centramos en segmentos preseleccionados de lo visto, y a partir de ahí generalizamos en lo no visto: el error de la c...
Per il robusto un errore è informazione, per il debole un errore è solo un errore
People do not realize that the media is paid to get your attention. For a journalist, silence rarely surpasses any word.
Outside of textbooks and casinos, probability almost never presents itself as a mathematical problem or a brain teaser.
Our sophistication continuously puts us ahead of ourselves, creating things we are less and less capable of understanding.
Our emotional apparatus is designed for linear causality. For instance, you study every day and learn something in proportion to your studies. If you do not feel that you are going anywhere, your emot...
One of the methods, called sortes virgilianae (fate as decided by the epic poet Virgil), involved opening Virgil’s Aeneid at random and interpreting the line that presented itself as direction for the...
One needs to go out and buy a lottery ticket in order to win. Does it mean that the work involved in the trip to the store caused the winning?
One death is a tragedy; a million is a statistic. Statistics stay silent in us.
Nu căutați ceea ce este precis și local. Nu fiți îngust la minte. Marele descoperitor Pasteur, care a venit cu ideea că norocul îl favorizează pe cel pregătit, a înțeles că pentru a lăsa contingența s...
Now take a look at the cemetery. It is quite difficult to do so because people who fail do not seem to write memoirs, and, if they did, those business publishers I know would not even consider giving...
Nation-states like war; city-states like commerce; families like stability; and individuals like entertainment,
My best definition of a nerd: someone who asks you to explain an aphorism.
More data—such as paying attention to the eye colors of the people around when crossing the street—can make you miss the big truck.
Mistaking a naive observation of the past as something definitive or representative of the future is the one and only cause of our inability to understand the Black Swan.
Many amateurs believe that plants and animals reproduce on a one-way route toward perfection. Translating the idea in social terms, they believe that companies and organizations are, thanks to competi...
Man-made complex systems tend to develop cascades and runaway chains of reactions that decrease, even eliminate, predictability and cause outsized events.
Let us return to pathemata mathemata (learning through pain) and consider its reverse: learning through thrills and pleasure. People have two brains, one when there is skin in the game, one when there...
Le processus de la découverte (ou de l’innovation, ou du progrès technologique) dépend lui-même d’un bricolage antifragile, d’une brusque prise de risques plutôt que d’une culture formelle.
Kun nainen huutaa, että tekosi oli anteeksiantamaton, hän on jo alkanut antaa anteeksi.