Perception of causation has a biological foundation.
My wish is for people in general to remain fools of randomness (so I can trade against them), yet for there to remain a minority intelligent enough to value my methods and hire my services.
My antidote to Black Swans is precisely to be noncommoditized in my thinking. But
Much of what other people know isn’t worth knowing.
Many people mistaken for entrepreneurs fail to have true skin in the game in the sense that their aim is to either cash out by selling the company they helped create to someone else, or go public by i...
Ignoramus et ignorabimus—we are ignorant and will remain so. Somehow
If something is fragile, its risk of breaking makes anything you do to improve it or make it efficient inconsequential unless you first reduce that risk of breaking.
Epistemology,
Companies trying to misrepresent the product they sell by playing with our cognitive biases, our unconscious associations, and that’s sneaky. The latter is done by, say, showing a poetic picture of a...
Central illusion in life: that randomness is risky, that it is a bad thing—and that eliminating randomness is done by eliminating randomness.
Between one-third and one-half of all marriages fail,
Be. So I follow the Lindy effect as a guide in selecting what to read: books that have been around for ten years will be around for ten more; books that have been around for two millennia should be ar...
You will never fully convince someone that he is wrong; only reality can.
You never win an argument until they attack your person.
Yet there may not be a visible because; to the contrary, frequently there is nothing, not even a spectrum of possible explanations.
Yet simplicity has been difficult to implement in modern life because it is against the spirit of a certain brand of people who seek sophistication so they can justify their profession.
Writers are remembered for their best work, politicians for their worst mistakes, and businessmen are almost never remembered.
While we know that history flows forward, it is difficult to realize that we envision it backward. Why is it so?
When you are employed, hence dependent on other people’s judgment, looking busy can help you claim responsibility for the results in a random environment. The appearance of busyness reinforces the per...
When things go our way we reject the lack of certainty.